As early voting nears its end in the race for New York City mayor, new polling shows encouraging signs for Zohran Mamdani’s campaign. At least one poll, though, suggests “room for movement” as the three major candidates fight to replace incumbent Mayor Eric Adams.
An Emerson College/PIX 11/The Hill poll released Thursday shows Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, with a two-to-one lead over his closest rival, independent Andrew Cuomo, 50% to 25%.
Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa comes in four points behind Cuomo, with 21%, while four percent are undecided – putting Sliwa within striking distance of Cuomo for second place. Support for Mamdani rose by seven points from last month, while Cuomo lost three points. Sliwa jumped 11 points.
Three new polls showed very different date concerning the race for mayor, as one suggests the gap between Zohran Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo is somewhat narrow, while another makes the race seem like a runaway. NBC New York’s Andrew Siff reports.
The poll was conducted Oct. 25-27 and includes likely voters and those who have already voted. The poll’s margin of error is +/-3.8 percentage points.
“Mamdani appears to have built a coalition across key demographics, increasing his margin among Black voters since last month, from 50% to 71%, whereas Cuomo dropped ten points among Black voters since September,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Mamdani continues to have a base of young voters; 69% of voters under 50 support him, whereas 37% of voters over 50 support Mamdani, while 31% support Cuomo and 28% Silwa.”
A Marist New York City poll also released Thursday released Thursday shows Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani with a 16-point lead against independent Andrew Cuomo among likely voters. Mamdani’s lead doubles to 32 points over Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa.
The survey – which includes those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate – finds Mamdani with 48% of the vote, Cuomo at 32%, and Sliwa at 16%.
The poll was conducted Oct. 24-28 and has a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points among likely voters.
Those numbers closely resemble the findings of a Marist poll in September that examined a hypothetical matchup among the three candidates, before Adams dropped out of the race. The hypothetical poll showed Mamdani with 46%, Cuomo with 30% and Sliwa at 18%.
The recent Marist poll found that if Sliwa — who has never been in first or second place in polling since winning his party’s primary — were to drop out of the race, Mamdani would receive support from 51% of likely voters, compared with 44% for Cuomo, the former New York governor who resigned from office in 2021.
A Quinnipiac University New York City poll revealed on Wednesday showed Mamdani had support from 43% of likely voters. Cuomo received 33% support, and Sliwa remained well behind with 14%.
“The candidates have made their case, early voting is underway, Zohran Mamdani has a 10-point lead over Andrew Cuomo with Curtis Sliwa a distant third, but one wildcard remains,” said Mary Snow, Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director. “The percentage of likely voters not weighing in has increased a bit since earlier this month, suggesting there’s room for movement in the final stretch.”
In fact, that number has doubled since Oct. 9. The new Quinnipiac poll shows 6% of likely voters were undecided at time of the survey, Oct. 23-27; Only 3% were undecided in the previous poll. Mamdani led with 46% of likely voters at that point, while Cuomo received 33% and Sliwa had 15% support.
With early voting set to wrap up in New York City over the weekend, all three candidates are making a final push for support. So what concerns do voters have heading into Election Day? NBC New York’s Andrew Siff reports.
But a Suffolk University New York City poll released Oct. 27 showed the race tightening considerably. That survey – taken Oct. 23-26 – showed Cuomo cutting Mamdani’s lead in half to 10 points among likely voters. While the latest Suffolk poll has Mamdani leading Cuomo 44%-34%, with Sliwa at 11%, Mamdani held a 20-point lead over Cuomo in the September Suffolk poll.
“There is one person in New York City whose voters could have an outsized impact on the outcome,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “It’s Republican Curtis Sliwa, whose voters hold the 11% blocking Cuomo from winning the race. And when asked for their second choice, those voters preferred Cuomo over Mamdani 36%-2%.”
Mamdani, a state assembly member representing Astoria, Queens, has spent much of the campaign trying to overcome fears among moderate and conservative voters over his Democratic Socialist viewpoints, past comments about defunding police and support for Palestinians.
The newest Suffolk survey was fielded and completed after Mayor Adams endorsed Cuomo. The Suffolk poll has a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points.
Sliwa has resisted calls – including those by his former employer, billionaire New York City political power player and WABC radio owner John Catsimatidis – to exit the race. Cuomo launched his independent bid after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani in June.
The Marist October poll shows that in a hypothetical two-way contest between Mamdani and Cuomo, 77% of Republicans would back Cuomo while 13% would support Mamdani. Four percent of Republicans would support someone else, and 6% are undecided.
Among voters not registered with a political party, Cuomo garners 51% compared with 41% for Mamdani.
The most recent poll shows that Andrew Cuomo’s support appears to have plateaued, while Zohran Mamdani has slipped a bit — but still maintains a double-digit lead among voters. NBC New York’s Melissa Russo reports.
The early voting factor
Among likely voters, 51% say they will vote on Election Day, according to the Marist poll. The poll found that 38% said they would vote at an early voting location, and 12% plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot
Republicans (57%) and non-enrolled voters (56%) are more likely than Democrats (48%) to say they will cast their ballot on Election Day. The Marist Poll found Mamdani leads Cuomo, 52% to 32%, among likely voters who say they are going to vote at an early voting location. Sliwa received15%.
Among those who said they plan to vote in-person on Election Day, 43% support Mamdani; 33% back Cuomo, and 18% support Sliwa.
Early voting continues until Sunday, Nov. 2 at 5 p.m. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 4, with polls open that day from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.
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