Costume lovers flooding Walmart’s aisles last month in preparation for Halloween had little idea how much calculation went into stocking this year’s superhero, witch, and zombie outfits. Amid the Trump administration’s fluctuating tariffs, Walmart’s seasonal planning, which begins months in advance, now includes projecting how levies might change before orders arrive, estimating potential price shifts and guessing how many units will sell, according to CEO Doug McMillon. All that comes on top of analyzing how inflation may affect consumer behavior.
“Families prioritize their children and their pets before they prioritize the parents, and a mom usually puts herself last,” McMillon said while speaking at the Harvard Business Review’s Future of Business event today (Nov. 3). “These trade-offs happen throughout the family.”
Walmart factored those dynamics into its Halloween strategy this year. “We were confident there would be trick or treating and children’s costumes would sell, but we might not sell as many adult costumes,” he said, adding that the company has “done a really good job of generally getting things right” amid the uncertainty caused by tariffs.
As America’s largest retailer, Walmart manufactures more than two-thirds of its products domestically. But it still depends on imports from countries such as China, Mexico, Canada and Vietnam, leaving it exposed to tariffs. Earlier this year, the Bentonville, Ark.-based company warned that the duties could force it to raise prices.
Price hikes are just one of several difficult choices Walmart executives face under tariff pressure. Other decisions include shifting production, changing countries of origin and managing inventory. Inventory management can be an especially delicate task, according to McMillon. “If you get over-inventoried, you end up with all these additional costs,” he said. “If you have too little goods, you end up missing sales opportunities.”
It’s not the first time Walmart has had to make quick decisions in response to an unprecedented event. The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, for instance, accelerated the company’s decision-making as executives worked to protect employees and customers while maintaining supply chains. Those efforts paid off: Walmart’s profits surged in 2020 as consumers stocked up on essentials, spent stimulus checks, and embraced the retailer’s online shopping and curbside pickup options.
McMillion credits Walmart’s pandemic-era success to the agility of its associates across stores, supply chains and warehouses. “What I experienced is just how good their judgment was and how fast they could make decisions,” he said. The same adaptability, he added, is proving essential again as Walmart navigates tariff-fueled uncertainty.
“The way they’ve managed through this whole, ever-changing complex situation, too, has been impressive—just like it was during the pandemic,” he said.
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