Slow-moving storm to bring days of rain to Southeast US. Florida impact, forecast

A slow-moving storm is expected to bring multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms across Florida through the weekend, including Mother’s Day, May 11, and into Monday, May 12.

While the rain is much needed to help drought conditions in the state, too much could result in flooding.

There’s a marginal risk for severe weather across portions of North and Central this weekend.

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, hail, brief isolated tornadoes and heavy downpours are possible, according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management’s forecast.

While confidence is increasing in the threat of heavy rain and flash flooding, the exact placement and rainfall totals are still relatively low confidence, the agency said.

The current most likely forecast calls for a widespread 4 to 8 inches across the forecast area from Thursday through Monday. There is a 10% chance of exceeding 10 inches in localized spots.

Heavy rainfall could result in flooding, especially in urban and low-lying areas. Flash flooding is possible across portions of North and Central Florida Saturday and Sunday, and across the Big Bend and peninsula Monday

The heaviest of the rainfall and the period of greatest concern is Saturday, May 10, through Monday, May 12, the agency said.

Florida weather forecast

Pensacola, western Panhandle: Expect 1 to 3 inches of rain through Sunday, with some pockets of higher amounts. Things should start drying out Monday, May 12, with most of the week looking to be dry.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: From May 8 through May 12, 4 to 6 inches of rain is forecast across the Big Bend and Panhandle. In a worst-case scenario, some areas could get 8 to 10 inches. Most of the rain will be concentrated on Saturday and Sunday. While some areas could see some flooding, for the most part, the rain will be beneficial.
Jacksonville, North Florida: Expect daily showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings through Saturday. A system of low pressure developing in the Gulf is expected to bring more widespread rainfall Sunday into Monday which can occur any time, day or night. Northeast Florida can expect up to 6 inches of rainfall through Tuesday, with Sunday and Monday forecast to be the worst days to be outside.
Daytona Beach to Stuart, east central Florida: There’s a 60% to 70% percent chance for rain across the I-4 corridor and from the Space Coast north Thursday through early next week. Along the Treasure Coast, chances for rain increase to about 70% by the weekend. Daily rainfall amounts are expected to be less than an inch.
West Palm Beach to Naples: South Florida: As of May 8, it looks like late Sunday through late Tuesday will be the most active period. Rainfall in Naples from Sunday through Wednesday could be 2 to 3 inches, while 4 to 6 inches could fall in West Palm Beach. Expect Monday to be the most active day when it comes to rainfall.
Fort Myers to Sarasota, Southwest Florida: Expect 2 to 4 inches of rain between Thursday and May 15. The highest chances of rain will be on Mother’s Day May 11 and on Monday, May 12.