Abu Dhabi and Dubai are expected to post strong third-quarter property sales, yet investor sentiment remains cautious, with the share prices of leading developers failing to reflect the strength of the market.
Bumper sales and rising residential prices in Abu Dhabi mean its leading listed real estate developer, Aldar, will outperform its Dubai counterparts, Emaar Properties and its subsidiary, Emaar Development, based on estimated third-quarter profit growth, say industry analysts.
Yet the companies’ stock price gains have been more muted. Aldar’s shares were up 24 percent this year to October 7, outperforming Emaar Properties (+6 percent) and Emaar Development (+2 percent).
Both emirates’ property sectors will remain buoyant as population growth and the UAE’s safe-haven status bolsters demand from residents and foreign investors alike, experts say.
Abu Dhabi’s Aldar Properties will make a third-quarter net profit of AED1.7 billion ($463 million), up 57 percent versus the prior-year period, Bahrain’s Sico Bank forecasts.
Dubai’s Emaar Properties will report a third-quarter net profit of AED3.7 billion, 17 percent higher year on year, and Emaar Development’s third-quarter net profit will rise 4 percent to AED2.1 billion, Sico predicts.
“We expect both Emaar and Aldar to report strong year-on-year growth driven by continued execution of [a] robust sales backlog while recurring earnings streams are likely to be softer due to seasonality,” Sico wrote in a research note.
The projected third-quarter profit increases follow a strong first half of 2025, with Emaar Properties’ January-June net profit rising 33 percent year on year to $1.9 billion.
Emaar Development’s first-half net profit grew 50 percent to $1 billion and Aldar’s increased 26 percent to $984 million.
Among this trio, Emaar Properties is the cheapest stock in terms of trailing price-to-earnings ratio (PE), trading at 7.9. That compares with a PE of 6.3 for Emaar Development and 12 for Aldar.
Emaar Properties, whose largest shareholder is the Investment Corporation of Dubai, also offers the highest dividend yield of the three companies at 7.4 percent, followed by Emaar Development (4.9 percent) and Aldar (2 percent).
Dubai Q3 real estate transactions totalled AED169 billion ($46.1 billion), down from AED184 billion in the second quarter, government data shows. Such a decline is a usual occurrence over the summer rather than a noteworthy slowdown.
Abu Dhabi third-quarter real estate sales were AED39 billion, the highest quarterly total since at least early 2023, according to the emirate’s government. The Dubai and Abu Dhabi data includes commercial as well as residential property.
“Off-plan residential projects were the key drivers for sales during the quarter in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai,” said Junaid Ansari, director of investment strategy and research at Kuwait’s Kamco Invest.
“Q4 is normally a seasonally strong quarter, especially for Dubai,” said Ansari.
“Growth is expected to be driven by the perceived safe-haven status that inspires global investor confidence amid the ongoing geopolitical situation in the region and internationally.”
Consultant ValuStrat’s Dubai residential price index reached a record high of 231 points in September, up 15 percent this year. The index has gained 131 percent since rebasing to 100 in January 2021, reflecting a post-pandemic economic and demographic renaissance.
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Abu Dhabi does not provide aggregate sales price data across residential property types and sizes. Taking two-bedroom apartments as an example, these were selling for an average price of AED1.8 million in September, up from AED1.4 million at the end of last year.
“With rate cuts accelerating in the near term coupled with liquidity with UAE banks, we expect an increase in demand during Q4 as well as early next year,” said Ansari.
“There have been recent warnings, but growth continues in all the sectors including residential, commercial and industrial segments. In addition, rising rents have swayed [some] renters to go for ownership, further supporting the market.
“The increase in supply expected from late next year should adjust property prices, but demand is expected to remain steady,” said Ansari.
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