India-Pakistan ceasefire likely to hold, but fears abound over militant strikes

India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire after days of escalating conflict, with optimistic observers on both sides maintaining the agreement even as the risk looms of a flare-up if further militant strikes occur.

The ceasefire deal follows weeks of clashes, missile and drone strikes across borders that were triggered by a gun massacre of tourists last month that India blames on Pakistan, which has denied the charges. Dozens of civilians have been killed on either side from the violent exchanges.

The first word of the truce came on Saturday from US President Donald Trump, who posted on his Truth Social platform that he was pleased to announce India and Pakistan had agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire, congratulating both countries on the decision.

Analysts said neither India nor Pakistan was likely to break the deal in the near term, but the situation remained tense with their bitter dispute over the Himalayan province of Kashmir.

“We will still need to wait and watch on whether there are any acts of terrorism in the future,” said Harsh Pant, an international relations professor at King’s College London, highlighting that India had only earlier in the day said any future act of terror would be considered an “act of war”.