Ikram Aliskerov vs. Jun Yong Park Prediction, Odds: UFC 321 Pick

Read for an Ikram Aliskerov vs. Jun Yong Park prediction for UFC 321 on Saturday, October 25, with my betting pick and prediction.

Ikram Aliskerov vs. Jun Yong Park Odds

Here’s my Aliskerov vs. Park pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Aliskerov vs. Park Pick, Prediction

Ikram Alikserov is an explosive athlete with a power and reach advantage (2″ taller, 2″ reach) over “The Iron Turtle” Jun Yong Park. Still, Park is the more refined technician, with better durability and cardio. If he doesn’t get finished early, I anticipate him outlasting Aliskerov in the second half of a potentially high-paced fight.

Aliskerov may be a glass cannon – both of his losses came by Round 1 knockout,  albeit against Khamzat Chimaev and Robert Whittaker – and while he’s 4-0 on the scorecards, his gas tank is questionable in any extended matchup.

Park may get overwhelmed athletically early, but if he’s still there after five minutes, I’d expect him to work his way back into the fight and potentially flip the momentum completely with a takedown. He’s a better offensive grappler than he is defensively, and Aliskerov has yet to attempt a takedown in 13 combined minutes of UFC action.

Park needs to force a pace – he averages three takedown attempts per five minutes, completing 43% of those shots, and has held control in the majority (64%) of his grappling exchanges  Whether he forces Alikserkov to defend takedowns, or merely clinch against him up against the fence, Park’s best path in this matchup is to proactively grapple to tire Aliskerov out and drain his power, so that Park can successfully grapple him and hang tougher in striking exhanges more successfully later in the fight.

I project a slight edge on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -160, listed -148) or the Under 2.5 rounds, but given Park’s late-finish equity, would prefer to lay more juice to bet the former.

Alternatively, or in addition, consider betting Park to win in Round 2 (+1200) or Round 3 (+2300) pre-fight, while waiting for a live entry on his moneyline.

Projection: Aliskerov (67.6%)

Sean’s Pick:

• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-140, 0.25u) at Fanatics; bet to -150
• Jun Yong Park wins in Round 2 (+1150 0.05u) at BallyBet; bet to +800
• Jun Yong Park wins in Round 3 (+2000, 0.05u) at Fanatics; bet to +1600
• Jun Yong Park Live after Round 1

About the Author

Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.

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