On Tuesday, we forced The Athletic’s writers to consider whether any team can catch Arsenal, putting forward the cases for and against their eight closest challengers.
“No, they can’t be caught. There is no way a four-point gap can be made up with only 29 games to go,” responded one reader. And with only 24 per cent of the season gone, it’s right that much can still change.
But this is also the time of the season when the underlying numbers start to offer a truer indication of a team’s strengths and weaknesses, and we approach the point where the table changes less than you might expect (more on that another day).
All of which is to say: we’ve done it again.
Today, we are exploring the relegation battle, taking in the bottom seven and, as a nod to how much can change over the next few months, Sunderland, who you may remember from Tuesday’s article. Our data writer, Conor O’Neill, has also run the numbers on each side’s season so far.
Hopefully, you find a few things interesting and it gives you a better understanding of each team’s situation. Let us know in the comments who you think are the three teams most in danger of the drop.
Sunderland
Why they’ll be fine
As Bon Jovi didn’t quite put it, they’re almost halfway there. Forty points has long been hallowed territory for relegation battlers, but in reality, the mark required has been lower for a while. Recent research from Twenty First Group, a sports intelligence firm, suggests 36 points makes you more likely than not to stay up.
To that end, Sunderland’s tally of 17 — only the fourth time they’ve managed this many points after nine top-tier games since the Second World War — puts them in remarkably good shape. Following their play-off final win, many on Wearside struggled to pick sides they could finish ahead of. They are already 12 points or more ahead of three teams.
Sunderland have done what many promoted sides couldn’t: they’ve been clinical against others who were expected to struggle. West Ham United and Wolverhampton Wanderers have been dispatched at home. Nottingham Forest’s woes were pounced upon away. Brentford, who are looking better than some predicted, were beaten, too.
That has given them a buffer and momentum which, while unseen in the final league table, has a huge bearing on how a season unfolds.
Why they won’t
For all the optimism, there remains a long, long way to go. Relegation might become obvious inside the first nine games, a fact Sunderland fans know from painful experience, but survival isn’t achievable this early.
Good fixtures have offered the opportunity for a start that has wowed everyone, but tougher runs loom. The concept of the Stadium of Light as a fortress will be placed under severe strain before 2025 is over, with Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Newcastle United and Manchester City visiting in the next two months.
Just as momentum has propelled them to fourth, so a shift could dampen spirits and rein in any talk of a comfortable season. Those tough fixtures will be compounded by several new faces taking leave for the Africa Cup of Nations around Christmas.
Sunderland have made an outstanding start, but there’s a reason staying up remains the club’s primary objective this season.
Chris Weatherspoon
What the data says
Regis Le Bris’ side have excelled at containing Premier League opponents. Sunderland have conceded the third-most shots in the division, but the average quality of those efforts has been low. Their per-shot expected goals (xG) conceded stands at 0.08 — bettered only by Arsenal and Newcastle — while the average shot distance sits around the edge of the box. If they keep limiting teams to speculative potshots, they’ll be just fine.
Everton
Why they’ll be fine
Everton have a reliable manager in David Moyes, who has improved their fortunes since arriving in January. They possess an excellent goalkeeper in Jordan Pickford and the spine that kept them afloat in previous seasons, when they were light on attacking quality. In Jack Grealish, Iliman Ndiaye and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, they have players who can produce moments of inspiration in the final third.
Even a week ago, their presence on this list almost certainly would have raised eyebrows. Yet the 3-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur, coupled with results elsewhere, saw them slump to 14th. They have won just one of their last seven matches, creating the sense that they are spiralling in the wrong direction.
These are not positive signs, but they now have owners, in the Friedkin Group, with the spending power to remedy some of their shortcomings in the January window if needed.
Everton started the season targeting a push for Europe. While that lofty ambition may prove beyond them, it would be a surprise if they were dragged into a relegation battle.
Why they won’t
This is still an Everton squad short in key areas.
While they addressed certain shortcomings in January, such as their lack of creativity, they remain short of a reliable goalscorer up front. Beto and Thierno Barry have scored one league goal between them and neither has made a compelling case for regular starts.
Beto’s solitary strike against Wolves comes from an xG total of 3.7, with only Jean-Philippe Mateta of Crystal Palace underperforming by more. Summer signing Barry, meanwhile, very much looks like a work in progress. There is no obvious solution, and may not be until January at the earliest.
Key defender Jarrad Branthwaite is not expected to play again this year after undergoing surgery on a hamstring injury, with Senegalese duo Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye also likely to miss a sizeable chunk of games this winter due to the Africa Cup of Nations. There will be pressure on the supporting cast to deliver.
Patrick Boyland
What the data says
Of the teams mentioned here, Everton are the least likely to go down — at least according to Opta’s season-long projections, which put their relegation probability at 8.9 per cent. That’s lower than Sunderland, who currently sit six points ahead, with Everton’s greater survival chances reflecting their experience and squad depth.
Leeds United
Why they’ll be fine
It feels like Leeds have already proven themselves, and that’s reassuring. It took a 94th-minute Gabriel Gudmundsson own goal to deny them what would have been a hard-fought 0-0 draw at Fulham.
This season’s revelation, Bournemouth, were outplayed and outfought for 90 minutes before Leeds chucked away two points at the death. Then Tottenham, another of this season’s strongest starters, escaped with a win at Elland Road when the hosts deserved at least a draw, if not more.
Hard luck stories will only take Leeds so far. They need cold, hard points. They remain two points clear of the point-per-game average needed for survival. The underlying data also suggests things should improve for Leeds.
Only Arsenal and Newcastle have limited their opponents to a lower non-penalty xG than Leeds. In attack, Leeds rank 11th for their own npxG. Sadly, they have underperformed in both boxes. If their performances revert to the mean, they will soar.
Why they won’t
Football is not played on spreadsheets. Every year, we see the relegated trio underperforming in both boxes. That could conceivably be Leeds. We may harp on, each week, about United’s inspiring statistics, but it’s points that keep them up.
There has been some naivety in their play, but, ultimately, do they have the quality needed on the pitch to limit errors, keep the ball out in their own box, and stick away the chances they do create at the other end? The results up to now would suggest chance conversion is their greatest weakness.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has historically struggled to bury chances, while attackers Noah Okafor, Daniel James and Wilfried Gnonto are all struggling to keep fit behind him. The way the team has limited opponent chances is genuinely outstanding, but they haven’t kept a clean sheet in six matches.
If you want an example of what quality can do for you in the Premier League, take Manchester City. Their npxG against is identical to Leeds’ at 8.2, but they have conceded six non-penalty goals to Leeds’ 12. That’s the difference.
Beren Cross
What the data says
Leeds’ three victories have come against sides currently in the bottom seven, but their underlying numbers offer plenty of reason for optimism. They rank sixth in the league for average xG difference, a reflection of consistently strong performances, even if results have not always followed. If they maintain this level, they give themselves every chance of staying up.
Burnley
Why they’ll be fine
Burnley are unrecognisable from the side that was in the Premier League two years ago, and that is a huge compliment.
Scott Parker’s team possess all of the qualities that Vincent Kompany’s side lacked — a solid defensive foundation, togetherness, fighting spirit, and valuable top-flight experience led by example from defender Kyle Walker and goalkeeper Martin Dubravka.
Burnley approached this season differently from their previous promotion, from style of play to recruitment. Parker himself looks to have learned from his previous spells in the Premier League with Fulham and Bournemouth. He has put together a well-coached, balanced team with a typical survival mentality.
The fixture list wasn’t kind to them to begin the season, as was the case two years ago. Instead of being blown away by teams, they have shown they are capable of competing, having played six of the top eight.
Goals were a concern going into the season, but Parker’s side have found them from a variety of different sources. Zian Flemming, who scored twice in the victory against Wolverhampton Wanderers, was the latest to add his name to the goalscoring list.
Why they won’t
Burnley have picked up wins against their fellow promoted sides, Sunderland and Leeds, and bottom-of-the-table Wolves, alongside a draw with Nottingham Forest.
Their other points have come against 15th, 18th and 20th. Beating those around you is important, but it might not be enough on its own.
They have yet to show they can beat and take points off established Premier League teams sitting in mid-table and above. They have been very close — conceding stoppage-time penalties against both Manchester United and Liverpool — but the Premier League is unforgiving. It is currently more of an unknown than a problem.
They were also never going to replicate the near-impenetrable defence they had in the Championship last season. This season they are leaking goals, conceding at least twice in six of nine matches — the joint third most in the league.
There remains a slight concern about goals in the long run, too. When you do not have a 20-goal-a-season striker, success is found in goals by committee. That has been working, but there have been games where they have lacked threat, and over the course of the season, that could prove costly if it becomes a more prominent theme.
Andy Jones
What the data says
Burnley’s promotion was built on a strong defensive foundation, but that stability has quickly evaporated against Premier League opposition. Their expected goals conceded stands at 18.6 — the worst in the division — and they have allowed an xG above two in six of their nine matches.
Fulham
Why they’ll be fine
Marco Silva. Fulham’s longest-serving head coach since the 1960s, the man who ended their years bouncing between the Championship and Premier League, will surely navigate a path to safety. Whether it is a tactical tweak, an inventive set piece, or a straightforward burst of touchline fury, Silva always finds a way.
Performances have not been disastrous, even as results have dipped against strong opponents. Front-foot defending and slick attacking interplay, especially on the left flank, has been the blueprint over the past few seasons, but there are signs of evolution. Josh King has injected fresh purpose, linking midfield and attack while showing signs he could evolve into a genuine box-crashing goal threat. Silva deserves credit for trusting an 18-year-old to shoulder the responsibility, even when King has shown his inexperience.
Backing up that attacking ambition is a spine that should be pushing for the top half. Joachim Andersen and Calvin Bassey have formed a strong centre-back partnership and, when fit, Antonee Robinson is among world football’s most energetic full-backs. If the attacking pieces align like they did in the 3-1 win against Brentford, Fulham fans will start breathing easy.
Why they won’t
Er, Marco Silva. It’s not quite panic stations yet, but his contract expires at the end of the season. Fiery press conferences, frustration over a lack of signings, and a glum touchline demeanour paint a worrying picture. Four defeats on the spin have not improved Silva’s mood, especially as injuries stretch his squad further.
Robinson looks no closer to shaking off his long-term knee issue, and Silva is without five other players who would consider themselves to be at least in contention for a starting XI spot every week. King’s talent is obvious, but asking a teenager to carry a relegation-threatened team so soon feels like a step has been skipped in his development.
The flashes of brilliance from summer signings Kevin and Samuel Chukwueze have been too rare, and Silva’s reluctance to use Jonah Kusi-Asari tells us everything we need to know about how much he backed the 18-year-old’s loan signing from Bayern Munich.
Most worryingly of all, the defence that looked so sturdy last season has started gifting chances. Saturday’s home game against Wolverhampton Wanderers suddenly looks like it could provide a turning point either way.
Justin Guthrie
What the data says
Fulham’s five defeats to Chelsea, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Arsenal and Newcastle all came in games where they were underdogs at kick-off. The good news is that their fixtures are about to ease, with only Liverpool facing a kinder run over the next 10 matches, according to Opta’s Power Rankings. If they win the games they are expected to, Fulham should pull clear of danger during this stretch.
Nottingham Forest
Why they’ll be fine
Go on then, I’ll risk saying it. Nottingham Forest are too good to go down.
A squad that was good enough to finish seventh last season was strengthened further by the addition of 13 new players in a close to £200million recruitment drive last summer.
Their current struggles are not a reflection of the quality in the dressing room. They have more than enough quality to climb the table. A team with Murillo, Nikola Milenkovic, Elliot Anderson, Morgan Gibbs-White and Chris Wood in it should win enough matches to avoid a return to the Championship.
And, in Sean Dyche, Forest have a manager who is well-versed in the challenges of pulling clubs clear of danger in the Premier League. He did it more than once at Burnley and again at Everton.
Following a few months of absolute chaos, as Nuno Espirito Santo talked himself out of a job and was replaced by Ange Postecoglou — a man with a footballing ethos that could not have been more different — Dyche is very much needed, as a steady hand on the tiller.
Why they won’t
Well, about that chaos. Three managers in the space of less than two months is not the recipe for stability.
And that remains their main source of concern — that the challenge of adapting to a third different manager and a third approach (albeit one similar in style to Nuno) might prove to be too much.
And — while it was only one game, against a very good side — the performance and defeat at Bournemouth underlined exactly how much work Dyche has to do to get Forest back to their competitive best.
Dyche has to transition the Forest squad away from the high-stakes, risky mentality that Postecoglou tried to instil in the team and find a way to restore the defensive solidity, organisation and ability to launch explosive counter-attacks, which had been both their trademark and their foundation for success previously.
There are still 29 games left for him to achieve that.
Paul Taylor
What the data says
Forest’s Champions League push collapsed last season after wasteful finishing, and that profligacy has carried over into the new campaign. Spearheaded by Chris Wood, Forest outperformed their expected goals by a league-high 11.4 goals in 2024-25. Recapturing that sharp shooting is vital for their survival hopes.
West Ham
Why they’ll be fine
The club’s precarious league position and financial implications of relegation will force the hierarchy to heavily back head coach Nuno Espirito Santo in the January transfer market.
The last time their Premier League status was under threat was on the eve of the winter window five years ago. West Ham were hovering above the relegation zone, which led to the reappointment of David Moyes, who replaced Manuel Pellegrini, and saw the January arrivals of stalwarts Jarrod Bowen and Tomas Soucek. The pair played key roles in ensuring West Ham’s safety, and Nuno will hope potential arrivals have similar impacts.
Until then, the head coach will rely on the attacking quartet of Bowen, Lucas Paqueta, Niclas Fullkrug and Crysencio Summerville to have standout moments. Bowen, Paqueta and Fullkrug are internationals for their respective countries and their experience in the crucial stages of the season could prove key.
Why they won’t
Now for the bad news. The defence remains porous, error-prone and vulnerable on corners. West Ham have conceded nine goals from set pieces this season, the highest in the Premier League and the most by any side in the history of the league after the opening nine games. Central defensive duo Jean-Clair Todibo and Maximilian Kilman continue to regress, while loanee Igor Julio has struggled to impress Nuno.
There remains an overreliance on Bowen to be the saviour. He provided the assist for Mateus Fernandes in the 2-1 loss to Leeds United, scored the equaliser in the 1-1 draw with Everton, and led the late goalscoring surge in the 3-0 victory against Nottingham Forest in August.
Soucek has also stepped up in big moments previously, but without Bowen, there is a scarcity of offensive efficiency within the team. Fullkrug, 32, is injury-prone, Callum Wilson, 33, is best suited to cameo appearances off the bench, and Callum Marshall, 20, is still developing as a young forward. For all Paqueta’s qualities, he can be anonymous in games, while Summerville is still finding his rhythm after returning from a nine-month injury lay-off.
To compound matters, West Ham’s forthcoming games against Newcastle United (H), Burnley (H), Bournemouth (A), Liverpool (H), Manchester United (A), Brighton (A), Aston Villa (H) and Manchester City (A). This will be a defining period for Nuno’s side and it is hard to see how it does not end in a sequence of defeats.
Roshane Thomas
What the data says
Once again, West Ham’s hopes rest on the shoulders of their talisman, Bowen. The forward has scored 43 per cent of their goals this season, propping up their stuttering attack. At least Nuno’s counterattacking style should play to his strengths — no player has scored a higher share of goals from fast breaks since 2019-20.
Wolves
Why they’ll be fine
It does not reflect well on Wolves and their decline in recent years, but the biggest thing in their favour is that they know the course and distance.
They have been in a similar position in two of the last three seasons and on both occasions managed to survive with relative ease by spending in January to improve their squad, and by changing their manager.
With that in mind, they made a profit on transfer fees in the summer window and made a significant reduction in their wage bill, so they should have the ability to spend with relative freedom in January, while some of their rivals will be restricted by heavier net spending in the summer.
Wolves fans might also be clinging to the fact they have several players — Joao Gomes, Andre, Jorgen Strand Larsen and Emmanuel Agbadou, to name a few — who have proven they are capable of more in the Premier League than they have produced this season.
Why they won’t
The overwhelming sense among Wolves supporters is that the squad they built in the summer is simply not equipped for the challenge of the Premier League.
The six players who arrived before the start of the season did not have a single minute of Premier League experience to their name, and only Ladislav Krejci has impressed so far, with even the Czech defender’s levels dipping in the last two games.
They no longer have the battle-hardened Premier League know-how that Craig Dawson, Mario Lemina and Nelson Semedo brought to the table, nor do they have players who can match Rayan Ait-Nouri and Matheus Cunha’s ability to turn a game with individual flair.
While they have pulled off escapes from equally difficult positions statistically, this season the promoted teams are clearly stronger, and Wolves’ opening run of fixtures have been easier, so they have lots of tough games ahead.
Steve Madeley
What the data says
The only scant encouragement for Wolves is that they had the exact same record after nine games last season. Like then, Wolves have conceded far more than expected based on the quality of the chances they have conceded, letting in 19 from an xG of 11.5. They managed to reverse this trend last season and will need to do the same again to save themselves this time around.
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