Could improved Wolves pull off the GREATEST escape?

Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 22.

Team analysis: Wolverhampton Wanderers

A resurgent Wolverhampton Wanderers side will entertain Newcastle United this weekend full of new-found optimism having collected five points from their last three matches.  

They couldn’t stay up, could they? 

With 14 points to make up on 17th-placed Nottingham Forest with just 17 matches left to play, that scenario feels extremely unlikely but the green shoots of recovery are there for all to see.

It feels as if Wolves have left it too late to preserve their top-flight status, but faint hopes remain that this rejuvenated side can pull off a miracle.

The underlying metrics are encouraging: Opta rank them 10th in the Premier League for Expected Goals Against (xGA) with 29.42 and 18th for Expected Goals (xG) with 19.71. However, no team has ever recovered from this far behind to stay up.

Premier League teams fewest points after 21 matches to avoid relegation

A bolder midfield

In recent weeks head coach Rob Edwards has rolled the dice by selecting a more enterprising central midfield unit. 

In a 3-5-2 set-up he has begun using Joao Gomes as his sole pivot, flanked either side by teenage sensation Mateus Mane and Colombian Jhon Arias.

Previously, defensive specialist Andre had started 15 of the first 18 Premier League games.

Mane and Arias are both attacking by nature, and have added athleticism as well as a welcome dash of adventure as box-to-box dynamos.  

It would be a surprise if Edwards does not stick with them for the clash at home to Newcastle, having already caused problems against Manchester United, West Ham United and Everton.

Arias’ goal in a key 3-0 win against the Hammers typified what this pair bring.  

Initially, 18-year-old Mane turned Soungoutou Magassa brilliantly by receiving the ball on his back foot to open up space to run into.

From there the youngster fed the ball wide to Hwang Hee-chan, who cut it back intelligently for Arias, who had made a forceful run from deep.

While Hwang was out wide, Arias made a run into the box and was rewarded with a goal.  

With Hwang given license to roam all over the opposition half to link play and drag markers with him, both Mane and Arias are asked to drive into the final third as often as possible.

Nothing came of this move down the right, but both midfielders have joined striker Tolu Arokodare inside the box.

Until the past few weeks Arias had almost exclusively been used in forward areas by Edwards and predecessor Vitor Pereira.  

All 237 minutes as a right-sided central midfielder (see circled below) have come in the last three matches.  

One of the secrets to their success is the freedom Edwards is handing them when Wolves have possession.  

While Mane is stationed to the left and Arias to the right when the team doesn’t have possession, these touch maps tell the story of two players who can largely go wherever they please.

What else is different? 

Wolves have largely been a back-three outfit all season, using it in 17 of their 21 matches.  

We have seen Wolves utilise a 3-4-3 and 3-4-2-1 formation, but they have mainly deployed a 3-5-2 this season (in nine games).

That shape is in place at the moment, but within the same framework we have seen some improvements.

They are covering more distance and working harder as a collective, but it has been noticeable how well Edwards’ side has retreated into its shape too.

Wolves are pressing less vigorously, forcing fewer high turnovers and opponents are making more passes per defensive action too.

And by showing better organisation in a lower block, Wolves are facing fewer shots and big opportunities.  

Wolves’ defensive and attacking stats

*Per game. Scroll across to see the full table on mobile

Going forward the numbers are rising in the right direction too, albeit modestly.  

What we have seen is better movement and greater positional rotation in forward areas.

Mane’s wonderful goal at Everton saw Jorgen Strand Larsen come short to receive a pass, dragging a centre-back with him. 

This created an inviting hole for Wolves’ talented teenager to surge into, and from a great first touch that continued his momentum he despatched a fine strike from the edge of the box.

Watch: Mane’s performance vs West Ham

Who is Mane?

Former Rochdale academy star Mane has been at Molineux for less than two years, but since breaking through to the first team he has blown Wolves fans away with his talent.

The 18-year-old – who has chosen to represent England at junior level rather than his country of birth Portugal – has regularly drawn gasps of admiration from the crowd.

Using body swerves, quick feet and sharp turns to turn opponents inside out, Wolves have unearthed a gem who can make something happen in the blink of an eye.  

This outrageous turn between two West Ham players helped him create space for a shot on target.  

And after scoring from outside the box against West Ham and Everton, both from ball carries, he is sure to be a marked man when they face Newcastle.  

His attacking stats are impressive for a player who has featured for just 447 minutes.  

Mane’s attacking stats this season so far

How Arokodare has claimed Strand Larsen’s shirt 

Former Genk centre forward Arokodare has caught the eye of late with some lively performances.  

He scored against Arsenal from Mane’s terrific cross, and has looked a major aerial threat in a lot of his recent appearances.  

Arokodare’s goal v Arsenal

He has effectively taken Strand Larsen’s place, although the Norwegian did net a hat-trick against Shrewsbury Town last weekend in the FA Cup.  

The reason Arokodare has been preferred, is his vastly superior physical presence.  

He may have scored just once but across a wide variety of attacking metrics, the Nigerian emphatically out performs Strand Larsen.  

Arokodare v Strand Larsen attacking stats per 90 minutes