Asia hopes for cheaper oil as Opec boosts output – but trade doubts linger

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A surprise decision by Opec+ to accelerate production increases is fuelling hopes of cheaper oil across import-reliant Asia – but analysts warn the move could backfire, with deepening US-China trade tensions and persistent geopolitical uncertainty threatening to suppress demand just as global supply expands.

The oil producers’ cartel announced last weekend that it would raise output in June by 411,000 barrels per day, marking its second consecutive monthly increase. This brings the total production increase since April to 960,000 barrels per day – reversing 44 per cent of the supply cuts the group had imposed since 2022, according to Reuters.

The decision caught market watchers off guard, coming amid a gloomy global economic outlook. Trade talks between Washington and Beijing have shown little sign of progress, and with the two powers set to meet in Switzerland this weekend, hopes for a breakthrough remain dim.

For Asia, the world’s largest oil-importing region, the prospect of lower prices could provide some relief. Many Asian nations lack domestic oil supplies to meet the soaring energy demands of their growing economies and analysts say cheaper oil could help ease growing economic pressures.

Oil processing infrastructure at an oilfield in the Caspian Sea, western Kazakhstan. Photo: Reuters
Oil processing infrastructure at an oilfield in the Caspian Sea, western Kazakhstan. Photo: Reuters

Benchmark Brent crude prices dropped to a four-year low of less than US$60 per barrel on Monday following the Opec+ announcement. By Friday afternoon, prices had edged slightly higher, trading at US$63 per barrel during Asian trading hours.



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