Super Bowl 2026: Has Sam Darnold already silenced doubters? More early overreactions

The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots will meet up in Santa Clara for Super Bowl LX. We don’t have to look too far back to remember the last time these franchises squared off on the NFL’s biggest stage, doing so in Super Bowl XLIX. That game is best remembered for Malcolm Butler’s infamous goal-line interception, making it one of the more memorable Super Bowls of all time. 

This go around, while the franchises are the same, we have entirely different players and personnel set to duke it out for a Lombardi Trophy, which creates totally new storylines for us to unpack. As we await kickoff of Super Bowl LX on Feb. 8, let’s take a gander at some of those narratives and determine if they are overreactions or reality. 

Sam Darnold has already silenced his doubters

Overreaction vs. reality: Overreaction

Darnold’s career resurrection is one of the great developments over the last two years. He came into the NFL as the No. 3 overall pick of the New York Jets in 2018, but ultimately was not able to live up to that billing. From there, he began bouncing around the league, first landing with Carolina before serving as a backup for the 49ers in 2023. Then, Darnold found himself as the starter for the Minnesota Vikings in 2024, and his career began to do a 180. That season, he led the Vikings to a 14-3 record and into the playoffs after throwing for over 4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns. 

Darnold signed with Seattle in free agency the following offseason and again had a 4,000-yard passing season while posting another 14-3 record in the regular season, which was good for first place in the NFC West and the No. 1 seed. Now, he has them playing for a championship. 

2026 Super Bowl odds: Seahawks favored over Patriots; Sam Darnold the early MVP favorite over Drake Maye

Tyler Sullivan

You’d think all that would have his doubters silenced, right? Well, not quite. 

There’s still the question in the back of people’s minds, wondering if Darnold will turn back into a pumpkin at some point. As sensational as he was for Minnesota for the bulk of the 2024 season, he reverted to his old self in Week 18 and then in the playoff loss to Los Angeles over Wild Card Weekend. That’s what keeps some from having total confidence in Darnold heading into this Super Bowl, and a strong performance that ends with him hoisting the Lombardi Trophy may be the only way to rid those skeptics for good. 

Drake Maye’s rumored injury will impact his performance

Overreaction vs. reality: Overreaction

There’s been some online scuttlebutt that Drake Maye is dealing with an injury to his right shoulder. The Patriots signal-caller could be seen sort of nursing his throwing shoulder in the AFC Championship, particularly after a hit from Broncos safety Talanoa Hufanga in the third quarter. 

When asked about it on Tuesday during his appearance on WEEI Afternoons, Maye downplayed any shoulder ailment and noted he feels good heading into the Super Bowl.

“I’m feeling good. I’m feeling good. We gonna get some extra rest, and really the only thing that’s from the game, I think just the build up of throwing for, this is what, almost, including training camp, thirty weeks straight of throwing and four days a week. It can add up. But I’ve got some extra rest. I’m feeling good, and yeah, ready to go for the Super Bowl,” Maye said, via Patriots Wire.

Given the amount of rest that New England will get between that AFC Championship and the Super Bowl, it’s hard to imagine that this possible shoulder injury will have much bearing in the game. That’s especially true considering Maye had his best throw of the AFC Championship AFTER that hit from Hufanga, perfectly placing a deep ball to Mack Hollins on a flea-flicker. 

The fears of this right shoulder injury feel a touch overblown. 

Patriots offensive slump is flying under the radar

Overreaction vs. reality: Reality

The Patriots were able to reach the Super Bowl, but it’s not like their offense is firing on all cylinders. Putting any sort of injury to Drake Maye aside, for reasons we just explained above, New England’s offense is entering the big game on a little bit of a slump. 

The unit is averaging just 18.0 points per game this postseason, which is the fewest by a team entering the Super Bowl since the 1979 Rams. Meanwhile, their 4.35 yards per play are the fourth-fewest by any team with three wins entering a Super Bowl all-time, and their 177.7 passing yards per game over that stretch are the fifth-fewest by such a team all-time. If we compare that production to what they did in the regular season, it’s a pretty steep drop off. 

It’s worth noting that the Patriots did face some of the top defenses in the NFL over their playoff run in the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos, but they are not going to get any sort of reprieve in Santa Clara when they face Seattle (No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL), so the offense will need to get back on track. 

New England’s playoff defense is an all-time unit

Overreaction vs. reality: Overreaction

If you look at the numbers, you’d think that the Patriots are coming into this Super Bowl with a defense that will rival some of the all-time great units. After all, they are allowing just 8.7 points per game these playoffs, which is the lowest through three postseason games since the 2000 Ravens. They are also holding opponents to 209.7 yards per game and a 25% red zone touchdown rate this postseason. That’s awfully stellar, but we also need to account for the quarterbacks they’ve faced and the limitations each had if we’re going to look at New England accurately.  

Over Wild Card Weekend, they faced Justin Herbert without his starting offensive tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. In the divisional round, C.J. Stroud didn’t have his No. 1 wideout Nico Collins due to injury. Then, they faced backup Jarrett Stidham in the AFC Championship after Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the round prior. 

Don’t get us wrong, the Patriots have elevated this postseason defensively, but the eye test doesn’t exactly tell us they’ve elevated to the point of an all-time unit likes stats indicate, particularly with the knowledge of their opponents having a hand tied behind their back in certain respects. 

Seattle’s defense will determine who wins Super Bowl LX

Overreaction vs. reality: Reality

The Seattle defense could very well determine who ends up in the winner’s circle in Super Bowl LX. They come into this game as the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL, which is an awfully good place to be if history is any indicator. Since 1970, the No. 1 scoring defenses are 14-4 in the Super Bowl. 

Specifically, this creates quite the chess match between this unit and Drake Maye, who is a candidate for MVP after earning second-team All-Pro honors this season. This will mark the seventh time since 1970 that an All-Pro quarterback will face off against the No. 1 scoring defense in the Super Bowl. The top-scoring defense is 5-1 in those previous six games, and the only win came from Joe Montana in 1989 against the Broncos, where he had five touchdowns and no interceptions. 

If Maye’s Year 2 ascent caps off with a Joe Montana impression, Seattle could be in some trouble. However, if they take care of business and play their typical game, the unit could end up being the MVP of Super Bowl LX.