The war in Sudan is increasingly testing regional fault lines, with neighboring states articulating “red lines” to justify military and security involvement.
In Cairo, the Egyptian presidency issued a statement during Transitional Sovereignty Council Chair Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s visit for talks with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, declaring Egypt’s “full right” to activate the joint defense agreement with Sudan in response to threats to “red lines” relating to Sudanese state institutions and Egypt’s own national security.
While Egypt has been involved in Sudan’s war since its outbreak, this marked the first time Cairo has publicly signaled the activation of mutual defense protocols. An RSF source in the paramilitary group’s legal advisory office said such a shift amounts to a declaration of war against the RSF. The group is cautiously monitoring developments in Sudanese-Egyptian relations, RSF sources told Mada Masr.
South Sudan also drew a red line of its own after RSF forces advanced into the Heglig border area of West Kordofan, where South Sudanese troops have been deployed to protect oil facilities vital to Juba’s economy. The incursion triggered clashes between the two forces that South Sudanese field sources described as a “warning.” A South Sudanese diplomatic source stressed that oil facilities constitute “a red line,” and that Juba is closely monitoring the war’s spillover along the shared border.
And while Burhan, according to a former ministerial source, is already handling the course of Sudan’s relations with neighboring and regional states, Prime Minister Kamel Idris embarked this week on a visit to New York which the source described as carrying little political weight. A former government advisor said the trip is intended to bolster Idris’s political standing at home and abroad, amid mounting criticism from both the TSC and the Sudanese public over his government’s handling of the crisis.
During the visit, Idris attended the UN Security Council’s open session on Sudan, where he reiterated Burhan’s proposal to end the war, contingent on the RSF’s withdrawal from areas they control, which an RSF political source described as “pure fantasy.”
Away from diplomatic forums, civilians in Kordofan continue to bear the brunt of the fighting. Dozens were killed or wounded in South Kordofan this week amid renewed artillery and drone attacks by the RSF and its ally, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, military and medical sources said. In West Kordofan, RSF-affiliated groups carried out widespread abuses, including kidnappings for ransom and looting, while SPLM-N restrictions on farmers and food supplies movement triggered acute food shortages across the state’s villages, residents told Mada Masr.
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Egypt invokes joint defense agreement with Sudan, RSF sources: Watching with caution
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Transitional Sovereignty Council Chair Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Cairo, December 18. Courtesy of the TSC on X
Egypt has moved to publicly invoke joint defense frameworks with Sudan following recent high-level talks between President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Transitional Sovereignty Council Chair Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, a step that RSF sources said is being “cautiously” watched by the paramilitary group.
Burhan arrived in Cairo on Thursday on a brief official visit, during which talks with Sisi focused on developments in Sudan, avenues for political and security cooperation and Egypt’s role in efforts to end the war.
In a statement issued on the occasion, Egypt’s presidency outlined what it described as “red lines” regarding the protection of Sudanese state institutions and Egypt’s own national security, which it said is “directly linked” to Sudan’s. Preserving Sudan’s unity, territorial integrity and national resources constitutes one of these red lines, the statement read, stressing that Egypt rejects any attempt at secession or creating parallel entities.
The presidency affirmed Egypt’s “full right to take all measures and procedures permitted under international law and under the joint defense agreement” between the two countries to ensure that those red lines are not crossed.
A former Sudanese intelligence official told Mada Masr that the joint defense agreement is already in force and operates through graduated phases depending on the magnitude of the threat.
Throughout the war, Egypt has been involved in providing support to the Sudanese military and has become directly involved at some points, including unannounced airstrikes conducted in October 2024 that helped the military retake key sites in Sennar State, an operation an Egyptian official confirmed at the time. Yet Cairo has exercised caution in its direct involvement to avoid backlash from the UAE, the RSF backer but also the primary financial supporter of the Egyptian government over the past decade, another Egyptian official told Mada Masr earlier in the war. This calculation was a central consideration for Egyptian officials as they weighed how to respond to the crisis brought about by Fasher’s fall.
Following the city’s fall to the RSF in late October, Egyptian involvement expanded through operational coordination with Turkey, according to four Egyptian officials who previously spoke to Mada Masr. This included not only surveillance and intelligence assistance, but also battlefield cooperation in North Darfur and Kordofan, they said.
One of the four officials said that the initial phase of Egyptian-Turkish coordination aimed to cut off supply routes and block military shipments headed to the RSF from southeastern Libya. A second official said that Turkish drones conducted strikes along these supply lines with logistical support from Egyptian and Sudanese airbases.
A source in the RSF’s legal advisory office said the group is fully aware of Egypt’s backing for the Sudanese military, particularly following the fall of Fasher. But, the source said, Cairo’s move from covert to overt involvement would amount to a declaration of war against the RSF. The RSF, the source added, is renewing the group’s leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo’s call for direct dialogue with Cairo rather than military involvement in Sudanese affairs.
An RSF military source close to the group’s deputy commander Abdel Rahim Dagalo and an RSF leader in Nyala told Mada Masr that any move to activate joint defense agreements between Sudan’s military leadership and Egypt are viewed within the RSF as unilateral arrangements that undermine prospects for a political settlement. A third RSF source said neighboring states should instead pressure Burhan to halt the fighting.
Egypt is part of the Quad, the US-led diplomatic track on Sudan that also includes Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which has put forward a string of ceasefire proposals since September. In the wake of Fasher’s fall, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Atty met with Burhan in Port Sudan, with discussions centered on reaching a humanitarian ceasefire, a source briefed on the meeting previously told Mada Masr.
The third RSF source said that the group is monitoring developments in Sudanese-Egyptian relations “with caution.”
After Burhan’s return to Sudan, Sudanese Deputy Foreign Minister Muawiya Osman Khaled said that during the visit, the two leaders discussed activating the joint defense agreement between Egypt and Sudan to address current security challenges in the region.
The agreement dates back to 1976, when it was signed by Egyptian President Anwar al-Sadat and Sudanese President Gaafar Nimeiry, and was later updated through security and military protocols signed in 2021. These covered joint training, border security and the exchange of expertise, as well as joint exercises including the Nile Eagles 2 air drill in Sudan and the Guardian of the South-1 border guards drill in Egypt.
Burhan’s Cairo visit comes as part of a broader regional diplomatic push that has included meetings with Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in mid-December, which Sudanese and Eritrean sources described as part of an emerging tri-party regional axis aimed at managing the war’s spillover — particularly along the Red Sea — rather than seeking an immediate political settlement.
To learn more about the political calculus guiding Cairo’s approach to military intervention in Sudan in the wake of the fall of Fasher, as well as the dynamics of the war’s supply routes, see Mada Masr’s report, The Quad War.
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Idris in New York to bolster his domestic standing
Prime Minister Kamel Idris he UN Security Council in New York, December 23. Courtesy of Hashtag Sudan on X
Prime Minister Kamel Idris left the administrative capital Port Sudan on Saturday morning for a five-day visit to the United States, during which he attended the UN Security Council’s open session on Sudan, a ministerial source told Mada Masr.
The trip comes amid criticism from the Transitional Sovereignty Council over the government’s crisis management, and is intended to reaffirm Idris’s political role both at home and abroad, a former advisor to the transitional government told Mada Masr.
During his stay in New York, Idris is scheduled to meet senior UN officials and members of the international community, including UN General Secretary Antonio Guterres, according to a source at the Cabinet Affairs Secretariat.
Talks are expected to focus on facilitating humanitarian access, exploring the prospects for a ceasefire tied to the RSF’s withdrawal from areas under its control and strengthening international cooperation, they said.
Idris presenting the Sudan peace initiative at the UN Security Council, December 22. Courtesy of the Sudan News Agency on X
Idris’s visit coincided with an open session on Sudan at the UN Security Council on Monday, during which he delivered a briefing on the latest developments in the country and presented a peace initiative which a former ministerial source said merely reiterated proposals Burhan has repeatedly advanced: unconditional ceasefire, RSF withdrawal and disarmament, followed by reintegration and a Sudanese-Sudanese dialogue to prepare for a democratic transition — all provisions anchored in the 2023 Jeddah Agreement that Burhan and military and government officials have fallen back on since late November.
An RSF political source told Mada Masr that Idris’s initiative is “pure fantasy” and that peace begins with “acknowledging Burhan has been defeated militarily and must respond to the realities on the ground.”
Burhan is pushing for “the RSF to withdraw from the centers of the big cities so he could at least go back to those he represents and say, ‘this is the beginning of the RSF’s withdrawal,’” an Egyptian official previously told Mada Masr. The RSF is unlikely to agree to such a condition, the official said, and even if they did, it would not fundamentally change the fact that there is a de facto division in Sudan.
A source familiar with Egypt’s policy on Sudan previously told Mada Masr that even if the Jeddah Agreement serves as a framework, it is unlikely to remain unchanged.
En route to New York, Idris held talks with Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Musa Kulaklikaya during a brief stopover at Istanbul International Airport on Saturday. The meeting covered bilateral relations, ways to enhance political and economic cooperation, developments in Sudan and international efforts to stop the war.
Despite the high-profile diplomacy, a former ministerial source said Idris’s outreach carries little weight, arguing that Burhan is already overseeing the direction of Sudan’s relations with neighboring and regional states. The source added that whatever Idris could offer in New York is already being handled by Sudan’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Al-Harith Idris, rendering the prime minister’s personal presence unnecessary.
The diplomatic push abroad is one front of Idris’s wider bid to rebrand his leadership. At home, Idris has been moving toward a broad cabinet reshuffle, as, according to former officials who spoke to Mada Masr, he seeks to assert himself before the new government settles in, amid public scrutiny over its performance. Ministerial staff told Mada Masr earlier this month that the premiership launched an informal campaign against the ministries in recent weeks, including unannounced visits and direct intervention in ministerial affairs.
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RSF, South Sudan’s forces clash in Heglig
RSF deputy commander Abdel Rahim Dagalo visiting the Heglig oil field in West Kordofan, December 17. Courtesy of the RSF on Telegram
Clashes broke out early this week between the RSF and the South Sudanese troops deployed to West Kordofan’s Heglig border area, home to Sudan’s largest oil field and a critical hub for processing South Sudan’s crude.
Following the RSF capture of the oil field earlier this month, and recognizing the threat to the infrastructure that carries its crude exports, Juba had dispatched forces to Heglig to secure the facilities under an arrangement with Khartoum and the RSF, according to South Sudanese and RSF sources who spoke to Mada Masr at the time.
The clashes took place near the oil facilities after unusual RSF troop movements advancing from areas under their control within West Kordofan, three field sources from the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) told Mada Masr.
SSPDF units raised their alert level and engaged in what the three sources described as “warning clashes” aimed at preventing any incursion into South Sudanese territory.
The confrontations lasted for several intermittent hours, involving light and medium weapons, before RSF forces withdrew to rear positions, a South Sudanese security source told Mada Masr. The SSPDF, the source added, “treated the situation as a direct threat to South Sudan’s national security and to vital oil facilities.”
An RSF military source described the incident as a “field miscalculation that was contained,” accusing Juba of “unjustified escalation.”
Last week, and in what Sudanese and South Sudanese sources described as a shift in Juba’s stance from passive exposure to the war’s repercussions to actively protecting its interests, South Sudan dispatched a security delegation to Port Sudan for talks on direct participation in security arrangements to protect Sudanese oil infrastructure.
A military source in Port Sudan said the agreement included deploying three combat battalions to the Heglig oil field.
Juba is closely monitoring the spillover of Sudan’s war along the shared border, according to a diplomatic source at South Sudan’s Foreign Ministry who stressed that the government “will not allow its territory to be turned into a battleground or a military corridor for any party.” Oil facilities, the source added, constitute a “red line.”
Four sources operating within RSF informal structures said the troop movements around Heglig were part of a “defensive deployment” dictated by battlefield developments, denying any intention to open a new front with South Sudan.
An engineering source at the Heglig oil field warned that any security deterioration could lead to extensive destruction of infrastructure, noting that repairs could take months, potentially resulting in a complete halt to South Sudan’s oil supplies.
A week after the RSF’s takeover of the Heglig oil field, RSF deputy commander Abdel Rahim Dagalo toured the site, vowing to press ahead with military operations.
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RSF, SPLM-N step up shelling in South Kordofan as abuses mount across West Kordofan
Displacement of people from Dalang in South Kordofan due to intensified RSF shelling, December 17. Courtesy of @AbedaMoham6183 on X
Dozens of civilians were killed or wounded this week in South Kordofan after coming under renewed artillery and drone attacks by the RSF and its ally, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, according to military and medical sources.
More than 120 rounds fell on Dalang’s residential neighborhoods during the allies’ indiscriminate shelling between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning, a military source told Mada Masr. At least 26 civilians were killed or wounded, including children, according to the source.
On Thursday, shelling also struck the women’s ward at the city’s model health center, as well as the headquarters of the health insurance executive unit, though no casualties were reported at those sites, the source said.
In the Karkul area along the Kadugli-Dalang road, six displaced people from Kadugli were killed in a drone strike the military source attributed to the two forces.
The assault on medical facilities continued on Sunday when the radiology department at Dalang Teaching Hospital was shelled, forcing it to shut down, a medical source told Mada Masr. On the same day, a drone strike hit the city’s Medical Corps Hospital, killing several patients, both civilians and soldiers, the source said.
In the Doumaya area, near the Kadugli-Dalang road, large concentrations of RSF and SPLM-N forces have been observed, a field source from military-allied forces told Mada Masr. According to the source, the military assesses that the buildup may signal preparations to sever the route — a critical artery for troop, logistical, commercial and humanitarian supplies movement across much of the state.
The allies have cut the road before. In June, they briefly severed the route, bringing supply lines to a halt and triggering a sharp deterioration in humanitarian conditions in the cities under a dual RSF-SPLM-N siege that has been in place since October 2023.
Northwest of Kadugli, the RSF seized the Borno area on Friday after heavy clashes in which the military deployed armored vehicles and artillery and initiated the attack, the paramilitary group stated.
A military drone struck RSF gathering points in the area on Sunday, killing and wounding several fighters, the field source said.
A former military officer said that the military is fully prepared should the allies attempt to storm Dalang and Kadugli, pointing to extensive stockpiles of modern weapons and ammunition, as well as large numbers of troops already deployed.
The military has received substantial supplies in recent days, secured its supply lines across Kordofan and Darfur, fortified its bases and reinforced forward positions, the former officer said, adding that there are indications it has acquired advanced weaponry capable of shifting the balance on the battlefield.
The preparations appear aimed at avoiding a repeat of the RSF’s tactic employed in Fasher and Babanusa, where the paramilitary group imposed prolonged sieges, cut supply routes and launched persistent attacks to exhaust military strongholds. Both cities suffered chronic shortages of supplies in the months leading up to their fall.
According to the former officer, the military’s strategy at the current stage appears to be centered on absorbing RSF assaults before drawing attacking forces into defined combat zones to wear them down.
The officer noted that in its battles for central Sudan, the military had relied on a war of attrition before launching broader offensives. But that approach does not preclude surprise attacks on RSF and SPLM-N positions followed by tactical withdrawals, they said.
Beyond the front lines, in West Kordofan, a former local official said RSF-affiliated groups carried out a campaign of intimidation and violence between Saturday and Tuesday in the areas of Danda al-Taawon, Zennara and Um Gadada, abducting civilians and demanding large ransoms for their release, while looting and destroying homes and property.
A resident of West Kordofan said RSF forces have repeatedly targeted critical infrastructure, disrupting services at hospitals and health centers. Another said the SPLM-N (Hilu) imposed restrictions on farmers and food supplies movement between villages and towns, triggering acute food shortages across large parts of the state.
Further north, the Dar Hamar Emergency Room said on Monday that the main referral hospital in North Kordofan’s Nuhud has been converted into a military barracks housing foreign technical personnel of Colombian nationality operating drone units. In a statement, the group said the RSF was using the hospital as cover to shield its forces from military airstrikes.
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