Week 16 is one of the highest-leverage weeks of the 2025 NFL season. There are four matchups this week that showcase massive swings in the playoff picture:
The Buccaneers (7-7) facing the Panthers (7-7), the Steelers (8-6) taking on the Lions (8-6), the Packers (9-4-1) battling the Bears (10-4) and the 49ers (10-4) squaring off against the Colts (8-6).
Week 16’s highest-leverage games (playoff odds swing)
Playoff odds reflect each team’s chances with a win vs. a loss, per SportsLine.
Buccaneers at Panthers
- Buccaneers: 91% → 49%
- Panthers: 48% → 8%
Swing: 82% (42% + 40%)
Steelers at Lions
- Steelers: 82% → 59%
- Lions: 44% → 15%
Swing: 62% (33% + 29%)
Packers at Bears
- Packers: 99% → 80%
- Bears: 94% → 70%
Swing: 43% (19% + 24%)
49ers at Colts
- 49ers: 100% → 94%
- Colts: 30% → 16%
Swing: 20% (6% + 14%)
Elsewhere, the Eagles can clinch an NFC East title with a win on Saturday against the Commanders or a Cowboys loss against the Chargers on Sunday. The Patriots (11-3) can tighten their grip on the top of the AFC East on “Sunday Night Football” against the Ravens (7-7) — a game the Ravens desperately need to keep pace with the AFC North-leading Steelers.
After a pivotal “Thursday Night Football” showdown between the Rams and Seahawks reshaped the NFC West — and the conference race as a whole — now is the perfect time to take a live look at the playoff picture. Below, we break down who’s in and who’s out.
AFC standings
- x-Denver Broncos (12-2)
- New England Patriots (11-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
- Buffalo Bills (10-4)
- Houston Texans (9-5)
x-clinched playoff berth
1. Denver Broncos (12-2)
Remaining schedule: vs. Jaguars, at Chiefs, vs. Chargers
After winning their 11th straight game thanks to a 34-26 victory against the Green Bay Packers, the Broncos are 12-2 and have officially clinched a playoff berth. They have a solid cushion in the AFC West, and now have even more breathing room in their pursuit of the No. 1 seed thanks to Buffalo defeating the Patriots.
2. New England Patriots (11-3)
Remaining schedule: at Ravens, at Jets, vs. Dolphins
The Patriots had an opportunity to clinch the AFC East with a win over Buffalo on Sunday, but blew a 21-point lead in Week 15 to snap their winning streak. New England remains in first place in the division, but the Bills are lurking.
Beyond Buffalo, that loss also doesn’t help the Patriots in their pursuit of Denver for the No. 1 seed.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
Remaining schedule: at Broncos, at Colts, vs. Titans
The Jaguars have now won five straight games following a blowout victory against the New York Jets. That helps keep them in first place in the AFC South over the surging Houston Texans.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
Remaining schedule: at Lions, at Browns, vs. Ravens
The Steelers remain in sole possession of first place in the AFC North after defeating the Dolphins on “Monday Night Football,” but there’s still a lot to be determined in this division. It could come down to their Week 18 matchup in Pittsburgh.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, vs. Texans, at Broncos
The Chargers notched their 10th win of the season and eliminated the Kansas City Chiefs from playoff contention on Sunday with a nail-biting win at Arrowhead. That victory not only keeps them as the No. 1 wild card team, but they are still within range of Denver in the AFC West.
6. Buffalo Bills (10-4)
Remaining schedule: at Browns, vs. Eagles, vs. Jets
It cannot be overstated how important Buffalo’s comeback win over the Patriots was in Week 15. After erasing another double-digit deficit, the Bills are still alive in the AFC East race, meaning there is still a path to a higher seed and a home playoff game.
7. Houston Texans (9-5)
Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, at Chargers, vs. Colts
After starting the year 0-3, the Texans have clawed back into the playoff picture as the No. 7 seed and are coming off an impressive win over the Cardinals at home in Week 15. They’ve now won six straight and are on the heels of the Jaguars in the AFC South, so there is room for this climb to go even higher.
In the hunt
The Colts (8-6) are mathematically still in the hunt, but have a difficult road forward, especially after being unable to pull off the upset in Seattle in Week 15.
The team that may have the best chance of this group to make the postseason is the Ravens (7-7), especially after shutting out the Bengals to move back to .500 on the year. That keeps them one game behind the Steelers in the AFC North with one more head-to-head still to go in the regular-season finale.
NFC standings
- x-Seattle Seahawks (12-3)
- Chicago Bears (10-4)
- Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
- x-Los Angeles Rams (11-4)
- San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
- Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)
x-clinched playoff berth
1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3)
Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at 49ers
Seattle pulled off an incredible, come-from-behind win over the Rams on “Thursday Night Football,” elevating itself to the No. 1 seed in the conference in the process. If the Seahawks win out against the Panthers and Niners, they will clinch the top spot in the NFC and a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
2. Chicago Bears (10-4)
Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, at 49ers, vs. Lions
The Bears have notched double-digit wins on the season after soundly taking down the Cleveland Browns at Soldier Field. Thanks to the Denver Broncos defeating the Packers, Chicago has vaulted back up to first place in the NFC North and are currently the No. 2 seed in the conference. Of course, this puts even more emphasis on what was already a massive matchup with Green Bay on Saturday night.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
Remaining schedule: at Commanders, at Bills, vs. Commanders
Philadelphia snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday with a blowout win against the Raiders. Jalen Hurts bounced back nicely with three passing touchdowns, and the victory helps the Eagles hold firm atop the NFC East.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at Dolphins, vs. Panthers
Even after that demoralizing loss to the Falcons on Thursday, the Buccaneers come out of Week 15 in first place in the NFC South. That’s thanks to the New Orleans Saints upsetting the Carolina Panthers to push them to 7-7 on the season. Tampa Bay holds the tiebreaker over Carolina at the moment due to a better win percentage against common opponents. However, both head-to-head matchups are still on deck, which will kick off on Sunday in Carolina.
5. Los Angeles Rams (11-4)
Remaining schedule: at Falcons, vs. Cardinals
The Rams are still a playoff lock thanks to their win in Week 15, but their chances of winning the NFC West and claiming the No. 1 seed in the conference were dramatically reduced by their loss to the Seahawks on Thursday night. They need Seattle to lose at least one more game, but also can’t have the 49ers win out. Otherwise, San Francisco would be the top seed in the conference by virtue of having the best division record among the three teams.
6. San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
Remaining schedule: at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks
The Niners are quietly lurking in the NFC playoff race. Despite being the No. 6 seed, San Francisco is 10-4 and ready to pounce if their division rivals slip up down the stretch. The team split the head-to-head series with the Rams, but does currently have the advantage over Seattle, which the 49ers face again in Week 18.
Following L.A.’s loss to Seattle on Thursday night, the Niners control their own destiny in the race for the No. 1 seed in the conference. If they win out, they get the top spot.
7. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)
Remaining schedule: at Bears, vs. Ravens, at Vikings
Green Bay saw a considerable fall from grace. After coming into Week 15 as the No. 2 seed and in first place in the NFC North, they’ve suddenly dropped all the way to the No. 7 seed after falling to the Denver Broncos. That defeat helped Chicago move on top of the Packers for first place in the division, which puts an even greater emphasis on Saturday’s matchup. Even worse, pass rusher Micah Parsons left Sunday’s loss due to a torn ACL.
Because Green Bay swept the season series against the Lions, the Packers have some wiggle room to play with before falling out of the playoff picture entirely.
In the hunt
The Lions (8-6) have their backs against the wall a bit after falling to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 15. That defeat continues to keep them on the outside looking in on the playoff picture as the No. 8 seed as they are in third place in the NFC North. They aren’t out of the race quite yet, but they certainly need to win out and get some help along the way.
The Carolina Panthers (7-7) had a golden opportunity to create some space between them and the Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South, simply needing a win over the Saints to move to 8-6, while Tampa Bay stumbled to 7-7 with a loss to Atlanta on Thursday. However, the Panthers allowed New Orleans to pull off the upset in Week 15, which sent them back to .500 on the season. Because they’re knotted with the Bucs, they lose the tiebreaker due to an inferior record against common opponents. Of course, the Panthers can get back into it with two of their remaining three games on the season against Tampa.
The Cowboys (6-7-1) are on life support after losing to the Vikings on Sunday night, all but ending any hopes of securing a postseason berth.
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